BET OF THE DAY
BET OF THE DAY
UEFA Champions League - Valencia Vs Atalanta, 10 March on 10:00 P.M.
Valencia Vs Atalanta, 10 March on 10:00 P.M.
Atalanta meet at Estadio de Mestalla, in a 2nd leg match for the UEFA Champions
League (8th Finals). Atalanta got a home win by (4‑1) in the previous 1st leg
match. In 2 head‑to‑heads in the last 3 years, the away team won 2. Valencia
registers significant differences between home and away results, so the
home/away factor is worth special attention.
Despite the 3 goals disadvantage from the 1st leg match, the home team has the advantage of having scored 1 goal in the away first leg match. This is a team that usually makes good use of the home advantage, stronger with the help of its supporters, since in the last 30 matches they register 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in away matches, with 16 goals scored and 27 conceded; against 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses at their stadium, with 26 goals scored and 19 conceded. In their last match, for the Primera División, they got an away tie against Deportivo Alavés by (1‑1). In the last 10 home matches Valencia has won 6, tied 3 and lost 1. Defensive consistency hasn’t been their best feature, as they have conceded goals in 5 of the last 7 matches, but their offense has scored consistently, as they have scored goals in 6 of the last 7 matches for this competition. In 15 matches, they have conceded the first goal 8 times and have never been able to turn the score around. there is 1 period that stands out in the last 20 home matches for all competitions: they have scored 12 of their 34 goals between minutes (76'‑90').
Valencia arrive for this game with a 1-1 draw at Alavés, registering in this way the second consecutive match without winning in the Spanish championship. In the first leg of the round of 16 of the Champions League, the home team lost to Atalanta, 4-1. In this complicated game at home, manager Albert Celades should maintain the usual 4-3-3, favoring the organization of his block and quick transitions through the aisles. On an individual level we highlight Dani Parejo, the team's captain, a player who scored 10 goals in official competitions. Despite the offensive quality, the "bats" have several gaps in set pieces and in the attack-defense transition. Out of this game are Maxi Gómez, Mangala and Garay, all injured.
The away team comes to this 2nd leg match with an advantage of 3 goals, but has suffered 1 goal at home in the 1st leg. This is a team that usually maintains its competitive level in home and away matches, since in the last 30 matches they register 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in away matches, with 37 goals scored and 23 conceded; against 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses at their stadium, with 43 goals scored and 21 conceded. In their last match, for the Serie A, they got an away win against Lecce by (2‑7). In the last 10 away matches Atalanta has won 5, tied 3 and lost 2. Defensive consistency hasn’t been their best feature, as they have conceded goals in 5 of the last 7 matches, but their offense has scored consistently, as they have scored goals in 6 of the last 7 matches for this competition. In their away matches there is a tendency for goals, since 24 of the last 26 matches have ended with Over 1,5 goals and 21 out of 26 have ended with Over 2,5 goals.
Atalanta arrive for this clash highly motivated after a 2-7 win at Lecce, in a game counting for the Italian championship. In the first leg of this Champions League round, the Italians beat Valencia, 4-1. In this away match, coach Gian Piero Gasperini should play in the usual 3-5-2, with Zapata and Ilicic being the team's most offensive references: the second player is the top scorer, with 17 goals scored. It should be noted that Atalanta have competence in the counterattack, defensive and offensive set pieces, finishing and aerial game. For this match the manager still cannot count on the injured Rafael Toloi and Sutalo.
The market we recommend for this game is the triumph of Valencia. We believe that the hosts will dominate and enjoy the best chances of goal, as they hold a team superior to the opponent of this round. In addition, the home team arrives at this game very motivated, apart from the improvements they presented to each game that passes. On the other hand Atalanta has some gaps in their style of play, which will be fundamental in this clash. To risk this in favor of the victory of the hosts is of enormous value. Therefore, we will bet on the home team's victory until the end of the match founded in a betting odd around 2.94.
The above description is a story of a classic betting tipster. BalanceYourBet is not one of them. BalanceYourBet is trying to provide to the player the information if the odds offered by betting sites are underestimated or overestimated. BalanceYourBet is trying to help every player to directly compare whether the tipsters' proposals are VALUE BET odds and help him to decide which match is best for betting. All the information is immediately displayed on the screen within a few seconds. The selection of results on a dark green background significantly increases the chance of success maximizing the profit that can be achieved.
How the BALANCEYOURBET works
For each match available from betting sites, BALANCEYOURBET is searching on his Database any information from older matches (such as final score, home goals, away goals, etc.), as well as data from the current league season (such as, for example, eg ranking, wins-defeats-draws, home goals, away goals, etc.). The above data are processed through appropriate algorithms to determine the VALUE bets for every match. Finally, the results are compared to the current odds of the betting sites and 4 cases are presented in the following legend and are briefly described below:
Dark Red Color
The betting odd resulting from BALANCEYOURBET analysis is over 10% higher than the betting site odd. In this case the betting site's odd is colored in Dark Red to discourage the player from choosing this result.
Light Red Color
The betting odd resulting from BALANCEYOURBET analysis is still greater than the betting site odd, but with a variation of less than 10%. In this case, the betting site's odd is colored in Light Red to inform the player that the choice of this result is underestimated.
Light Green Color
The betting odd resulting from BALANCEYOURBET analysis is lower than the betting site odd, but with a variation of less than 10%. In this case, the betting site's odd is colored in Light Green to inform the player that the choice of this result is overestimated.
Dark Green Color
The betting odd resulting from BALANCEYOURBET analysis is over 10% lower than the betting site odd. In this case the betting site's odd is colored in Dark Green to encourage the player to choose this result.
It is noted that in no case the return on green background should be considered as the most likely outcome. They simply indicate that the odds given by the betting company are high enough in relation to the probability of being confirmed and therefore it is worth the risk of betting (that's what we call VALUE BET).
So for the Valencia – Atalanta game the information that www.balanceyourbet.com is trying to give is that the betting odds offered for Atalanta win and draw are very low, while the odd for Valencia win is particularly high.
Therefore, by combining the tipster and www.balanceyourbet.com views for the Valencia – Atalanta match we will propose Valencia win offered in a betting odd around 2.94.